From Dragon Slayer to Diplomatic Dance: India’s Rapid Rethink on China Amid Trump’s Tariff Onslaught
India’s foreign policy landscape is undergoing a seismic shift, with once-fierce TikTok banning anti-China rhetoric giving way to talks of strategic partnerships and economic pragmatism. This pivot comes hot on the heels of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to China, where handshakes replaced hostilities, even as memories of border clashes linger. Yet, beneath the surface, tensions from recent conflicts and soaring trade deficits raise questions about whether this is genuine reconciliation or a tactical maneuver driven by external pressures.
- The Evolving India-China Dynamic
- Lingering Shadows of Galwan and Operation Sindoor
- Trump’s Tariffs: A Game-Changer for Bilateral Ties
- The Trade Deficit Dilemma
- Voices from the Ground: Hypocrisy, Media, and Public Sentiment
- Geopolitical Ripples and Foreign Policy Critiques
- India’s Retaliation Toolbox Against US Pressure
The Evolving India-China Dynamic
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China in late August 2025 marked his first trip there in seven years, culminating in a meeting with President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin. The leaders emphasized that India and China are “partners, not rivals,” committing to improved ties, reduced trade deficits, and resumed activities like the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra pilgrimage set for June 2025. Direct flights between the two nations are also slated to restart, signaling a thaw after years of frostiness.
This warming follows a series of high-level engagements, including visits by India’s defense and foreign ministers to China in June and July 2025—the first since the 2020 border clashes. Both sides have agreed to commemorate the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations in 2025 with joint events, focusing on border peace and a multipolar world vision. Yet, this “dragon-elephant tango” isn’t without caution; India remains vigilant about cheap Chinese imports flooding its markets, even as it explores manufacturing shifts from China to bolster domestic industries.
Lingering Shadows of Galwan and Operation Sindoor
The 2020 Galwan Valley clash, where at least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers died in hand-to-hand combat, remains a raw wound. It was the deadliest confrontation since 1975, triggered by infrastructure disputes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), leading to a buildup of troops and a souring of ties. In the aftermath, India banned Chinese apps like TikTok and restricted investments, while public sentiment boiled over with boycotts.
Fast-forward to May 2025’s Operation Sindoor, a four-day India-Pakistan conflict sparked by a terror attack in Pahalgam. India launched missile strikes on militant infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Deputy Chief of Army Staff Lt Gen Rahul R Singh revealed that China provided Pakistan with real-time intelligence on Indian movements, describing it as facing “one border and two adversaries.” He noted Beijing used the conflict as a “live lab” to test hardware without direct involvement, supplying 81% of Pakistan’s ammunition. Turkey also aided Pakistan, adding a third foe. Despite a ceasefire on May 10, these revelations underscore China’s proxy role, making the current diplomatic overtures feel like a stark reversal.
Trump’s Tariffs: A Game-Changer for Bilateral Ties
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have upended global trade, with India hit hard by a 50% levy on its exports—25% as a “reciprocal” measure for India’s tariffs on U.S. goods, plus another 25% penalty for buying Russian oil. Effective from August 2025, these tariffs threaten $48.2 billion in Indian exports and could shave 0.8% off India’s GDP if prolonged. Trump has blasted the U.S.-India trade as a “one-sided disaster,” citing India’s 6.2% average tariff on U.S. imports.
This economic squeeze coincides with India’s pivot toward China and Russia, as seen in Modi’s SCO attendance and increased Russian oil purchases—up 20% despite sanctions. Analysts see it as a hedge against U.S. unreliability, especially after Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief and brokered a ceasefire in Operation Sindoor. A federal court ruled most of Trump’s tariffs illegal in late 2025, but they remain in effect pending a Supreme Court appeal expected by October.
The Trade Deficit Dilemma
India’s trade imbalance with China has ballooned, reaching a record $99.2 billion in fiscal year 2024-25, up from $1.1 billion in 2003-04. Exports to China stood at just $14.25 billion, while imports surged, fueling concerns over dependency. Modi’s talks with Xi aimed at addressing this, but critics warn that deeper ties could widen the gap further.
| Fiscal Year | Exports to China (USD Billion) | Imports from China (USD Billion) | Trade Deficit (USD Billion) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 21.18 | 65.21 | 44.03 |
| 2021-22 | 28.14 | 97.52 | 69.38 |
| 2022-23 | 17.48 | 98.50 | 81.02 |
| 2023-24 | 16.65 | 101.75 | 85.10 |
| 2024-25 | 14.25 | 113.45 | 99.20 |
Data sourced from India’s Department of Commerce and Observatory of Economic Complexity.
Voices from the Ground: Hypocrisy, Media, and Public Sentiment
Critics accuse the government of hypocrisy, pointing to how anti-China fervor post-Galwan has morphed into “mature diplomacy.” One observer likened it to Orwell’s 1984, where alliances flip overnight, with media acting as a “lapdog” to amplify shifts. Supporters counter that geopolitics demands flexibility—no permanent friends or enemies, only interests—especially with U.S. pressures.
Social media buzzes with sarcasm: “Patriotism gets rebranded when the handshake comes from the top.” Others decry “andhbhakts” (blind devotees) for defending the pivot, while highlighting industrialists’ influence. A similar U-turn on Turkey’s aviation sector, approving leases despite security concerns, underscores pragmatic reversals.
Geopolitical Ripples and Foreign Policy Critiques
India’s moves signal strategic autonomy, aligning with China and Russia to counter U.S. dominance. Yet, detractors like Congress leaders argue it exposes foreign policy “shambles,” with Modi cozying up to Trump in 2020 only to face backlash now. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s son heading ORF’s Washington office has sparked irony claims, given calls for Indians to stay home.
Broader alliances, like the Quad, may strain, but proponents see this as a multipolar hedge. As one expert noted, “This is a marriage of convenience—everyone knows it.”
India’s Retaliation Toolbox Against US Pressure
Options for countering U.S. tariffs include pausing U.S. arms purchases or restricting pharma exports, which supply over half of U.S. generics. Experts advise waiting six months to gauge full impacts before retaliating, avoiding escalation. Increasing Russian oil buys has already signaled defiance, but halting exports could boomerang.
- Pharma Leverage: Curb generics to pressure U.S. healthcare.
- Arms Pause: Delay deals like fighter jets.
- Tariff Matching: Impose reciprocal duties, though risky.
- Diversification: Boost ties with Europe or Japan.
In this era of fluid alliances, India’s China pivot highlights the fragility of global ties, balancing past grievances with present necessities. As tariffs bite and borders simmer, the real test lies in sustaining growth without compromising sovereignty.
Can this reset endure, or will old rivalries resurface?